Japan overtake China to become the United States the largest overseas “creditors”

China for the sixth consecutive month holdings of US debt, the scale hit a new low in July 2010. Japan in October overtake China, becoming the largest US “creditor.”

US Treasury Department report (TIC), the Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds in October fell by $ 41.3 billion for the sixth consecutive month of decline to $ 1.1157 trillion, a record low since July 2010.

While Japan in October holdings of US Treasury bonds fell $ 4.5 billion to $ 1.13 trillion.

Market concerns, China’s holdings of US debt will constitute further upward pressure on US interest rates, which may lead to further depreciation of the renminbi.

US time Wednesday, the Fed decided to raise interest rates, and 2017 rate hike expectations raised to three times. This makes the yield of short-term US debt rose to 5-year high.

The next two months of China holding US debt data more worthy of attention. The figures for November and December will show how China will respond to Trump’s election to the US presidency. Trump’s tax cuts and infrastructure projects so that many investors expect the US economy will accelerate growth, and therefore sell US debt.

Since the US election, 10-year US debt prices continued to fall. Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Treasury index shows that since the election, the US Treasury prices fell an average of 3.3%.

At the end of November, China’s foreign exchange reserves fell 69.1 billion US dollars.

In this regard, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange official said, from the November situation, the central bank to provide foreign exchange market funds to adjust the balance of foreign exchange supply and demand, the US general election after the non-dollar currency depreciation of the dollar exchange rate, the bond price correction and other factors A comprehensive role, leading to a decline in the size of foreign exchange reserves.

Nearly half (about $ 30 billion) of foreign exchange reserves fell in November, stemming from exchange-rate discounts and traced back to the strength of the dollar after Trump was elected. Guotai Junan macro team pointed out,

The main reasons for the decrease in foreign reserves in November were: the depreciation of the non-US dollar and the valuation effect of the callback of the US and European debt, resulting in a loss of more than US $ 30 billion in the foreign exchange reserve; and the scale of foreign exchange market transactions, Inquiry volume for the first time since September 2015 rushed to 30 billion US dollars. Tracing the source, both Trump and the dollar after the election was strong.

In addition, the US Treasury released data show:

The United States in October net inflow of international capital +188 billion US dollars, the former value of -152.9 billion US dollars amended to -154.4 billion US dollars.

US long-term net capital inflows + 9.4 billion US dollars in October, the former value of -262 million US dollars.

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